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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 3 October 2015

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 17
  3. 22
  4. 23
  5. 26
  6. 38
  7. 29

JackpotNZ$2,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 205 of 1,357 under them

← 2015-09-26All recent draws2015-10-07 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 17 22 23 26 38 + 2929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 3 October 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

60oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 60 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 68% of every possible ticket.

  • sum56th
  • odd50th
  • low21th
  • widest gap80th
  • neighbours63th
  • spread92th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 31 of each

134times
1733times
2224times
2323times
26

Prize breakdown · 2015-10-03

  • Lines in play≈ 7.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$3.6Mto 36k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 198lines took a prize
  • Match 64 winnerschance said 1.9

Where the money went

  • Match 656%NZ$2M
  • Match 414%NZ$517.7K
  • Match 3 + Bonus14%NZ$495.4K
  • 3 other tiers16%NZ$558.2K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 64≈ 1.9 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

35times
3830times

Every number was expected about that many times after 204 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 6 numbers (1, 22, 23, 26) with the draw of 26 September 2015 — its closest relative in 204 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 37% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (26 September 2015): 1, 22, 23, 26 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

127

The numbers add up to 127 — the 55th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 6 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 14% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus10≈ 11 by chanceNZ$24,402
  • Match 5354≈ 372 by chanceNZ$717
  • Match 4 + Bonus887≈ 929 by chanceNZ$68.00
  • Match 415,225≈ 15k by chanceNZ$34.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus19,816≈ 20k by chanceNZ$25.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 887 winners, 5% fewer than the 929 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 64NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus10NZ$24,402
    Match 5354NZ$717
    Match 4 + Bonus887NZ$68.00
    Match 415,225NZ$34.00
    Match 3 + Bonus19,816NZ$25.00