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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 17 January 2015

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 15
  2. 19
  3. 30
  4. 32
  5. 35
  6. 40
  7. 18

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 168 of 1,357 under them

← 2015-01-10All recent draws2015-01-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed15 19 30 32 35 40 + 1829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 17 January 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

52oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 48% of every possible ticket.

  • sum97th
  • odd50th
  • low21th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread23th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 25 of each

1528times
1933times
3022times
3221times
35

Prize breakdown · 2015-01-17

  • Lines in play≈ 7.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.6Mto 37k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 198lines took a prize
  • Match 61 winnerchance said 1.9

Where the money went

  • Match 638%NZ$1.0M
  • Match 420%NZ$541.4K
  • Match 3 + Bonus20%NZ$517.7K
  • 3 other tiers22%NZ$582.9K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 61≈ 1.9 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

29times
4025times

Every number was expected about that many times after 167 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (15, 32, 40) with the draw of 18 October 2014 — its closest relative in 167 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 January 2015): 15, 19 carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

171

The numbers add up to 171 — the 96th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 27% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$1,000,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus8≈ 11 by chanceNZ$31,838
  • Match 5356≈ 373 by chanceNZ$744
  • Match 4 + Bonus867≈ 933 by chanceNZ$73.00
  • Match 415,468≈ 15k by chanceNZ$35.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus19,912≈ 20k by chanceNZ$26.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈7.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 867 winners, 7% fewer than the 933 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 61NZ$1,000,000
    Match 5 + Bonus8NZ$31,838
    Match 5356NZ$744
    Match 4 + Bonus867NZ$73.00
    Match 415,468NZ$35.00
    Match 3 + Bonus19,912NZ$26.00