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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Lotto · draw

Saturday, 11 August 2012

ResultLotto

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 4
  3. 15
  4. 20
  5. 26
  6. 31
  7. 22

JackpotNZ$1,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules6/40 + 1/40 · since Nov 2011draw 41 of 1,356 under them

← 2012-08-04All recent draws2012-08-18 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 4 15 20 26 31 + 2229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 August 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

54oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 53% of every possible ticket.

  • sum18th
  • odd21th
  • low79th
  • widest gap38th
  • neighbours21th
  • spread43th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 6 of each

27times
47times
158times
205times
26

Prize breakdown · 2012-08-11

  • Lines in play≈ 8.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid outNZ$2.8Mto 44k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 201lines took a prize
  • Match 62 winnerschance said 2.3

Where the money went

  • Match 635%NZ$1.0M
  • Match 421%NZ$596.3K
  • Match 3 + Bonus21%NZ$581.3K
  • 3 other tiers23%NZ$647.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 62≈ 2.3 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

5times
317times

Every number was expected about that many times after 40 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 6 numbers (15, 26, 31) with the draw of 21 July 2012 — its closest relative in 40 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 August 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 65% of draws repeat at least one number.

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

98

The numbers add up to 98 — the 17th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 123. No two numbers side by side. 58% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 7 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
NZ$500,000
  • Match 5 + Bonus11≈ 14 by chanceNZ$25,731
  • Match 5427≈ 454 by chanceNZ$689
  • Match 4 + Bonus1,143≈ 1.1k by chanceNZ$61.00
  • Match 418,070≈ 18k by chanceNZ$33.00
  • Match 3 + Bonus24,220≈ 24k by chanceNZ$24.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈8.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 + Bonus — 1,143 winners, 1% more than the 1.1k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 62NZ$500,000
    Match 5 + Bonus11NZ$25,731
    Match 5427NZ$689
    Match 4 + Bonus1,143NZ$61.00
    Match 418,070NZ$33.00
    Match 3 + Bonus24,220NZ$24.00