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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 23 July 2025

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 11
  2. 15
  3. 25
  4. 27
  5. 28
  6. 4

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 32% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,808 of 3,063 under them

← 2025-07-22All recent draws2025-07-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed11 15 25 27 28 + 429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 23 July 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

48oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 48 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 38% of every possible ticket.

  • sum60th
  • odd89th
  • low31th
  • widest gap26th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread9th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 360 of each

11364times
15371times
25345times
27356times
28

Prize breakdown · 2025-07-23

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.2Mto 97k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 11lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1 winnerchance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball42%£500.0K
  • Match 311%£132.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball15%£171.7K
  • 6 other tiers32%£378.1K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

369times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each

4196times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,807 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

This exact draw has happened before, on 14 June 2024. Chance gave a match this close a 0.5% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (22 July 2025): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

106

The numbers add up to 106 — the 59th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 27–28. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 518≈ 1.8 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball39≈ 23 by chance£250
  • Match 4471≈ 305 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball992≈ 774 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,620≈ 8.3k by chance£10.00
  • Match 313,258≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34,349≈ 32k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,405≈ 38k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 13,258 winners, 32% more than the 10k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,405£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34,349£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,620£10.00
    Match 313,258£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball992£20.00
    Match 4471£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball39£250
    Match 518£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1£500,000