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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 1 March 2025

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 2
  2. 3
  3. 17
  4. 21
  5. 28
  6. 1

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 48% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,726 of 3,064 under them

← 2025-02-28All recent draws2025-03-04 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed2 3 17 21 28 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 1 March 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

64oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 64 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 84% of every possible ticket.

  • sum12th
  • odd64th
  • low64th
  • widest gap60th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread43th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 349 of each

2345times
3348times
17337times
21358times
28

Prize breakdown · 2025-03-01

  • Lines in play≈ 1.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£790.9Kto 128k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.18

Where the money went

  • Match 325%£197.7K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball28%£218.0K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball19%£152.4K
  • 5 other tiers28%£222.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.18 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

355times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 195 of each

1195times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,725 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 17, 28) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 December 2024 — its closest relative in 2,725 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (28 February 2025): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

71

The numbers add up to 71 — the 11th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 2–3. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 12 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 2.4 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball34≈ 31 by chance£250
  • Match 4638≈ 404 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,162≈ 1.0k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,721≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 319,771≈ 13k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball43,607≈ 42k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball50,816≈ 51k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 19,771 winners, 48% more than the 13k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball50,816£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball43,607£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball11,721£10.00
    Match 319,771£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,162£20.00
    Match 4638£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball34£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000