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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 19 February 2025

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 10
  3. 11
  4. 21
  5. 23
  6. 10

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 50% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,720 of 3,064 under them

← 2025-02-18All recent draws2025-02-21 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 10 11 21 23 + 1029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 19 February 2025 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 25% of every possible ticket.

  • sum9th
  • odd89th
  • low64th
  • widest gap26th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread17th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 349 of each

3346times
10358times
11354times
21356times
23

Prize breakdown · 2025-02-19

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.1Mto 99k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 11lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1 winnerchance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball44%£500.0K
  • Match 313%£146.9K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball15%£174.1K
  • 6 other tiers28%£313.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

337times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 194 of each

10184times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,719 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 11, 21, 23) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 April 2023 — its closest relative in 2,719 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 55% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (18 February 2025): 10 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

68

The numbers add up to 68 — the 9th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 10–11. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.4× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 53≈ 1.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball35≈ 23 by chance£250
  • Match 4507≈ 296 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,173≈ 751 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,415≈ 8.0k by chance£10.00
  • Match 314,686≈ 9.8k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34,828≈ 31k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball37,258≈ 37k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 1,173 winners, 56% more than the 751 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball37,258£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball34,828£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,415£10.00
    Match 314,686£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,173£20.00
    Match 4507£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball35£250
    Match 53£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1£500,000