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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 27 September 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 4
  3. 8
  4. 14
  5. 16
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 5% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,637 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-09-25All recent draws2024-09-28 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 4 8 14 16 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 27 September 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

15oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 15 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 1% of every possible ticket.

  • sum1th
  • odd9th
  • low99th
  • widest gap4th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread3th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 338 of each

3330times
4353times
8323times
14312times
16

Prize breakdown · 2024-09-27

  • Lines in play≈ 1.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£627.8Kto 107k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.16

Where the money went

  • Match 319%£121.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£191.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball21%£132.5K
  • 5 other tiers29%£182.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.16 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

334times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 188 of each

5194times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,636 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (3, 4, 14) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 June 2024 — its closest relative in 2,636 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (25 September 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

45

The numbers add up to 45 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 3–4. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

8 had not appeared for 47 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 53≈ 2.1 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball30≈ 27 by chance£250
  • Match 4352≈ 351 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball925≈ 891 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,575≈ 9.5k by chance£10.00
  • Match 312,139≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball38,383≈ 37k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball44,173≈ 44k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 plus Bonus Ball — 10,575 winners, 11% more than the 9.5k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball44,173£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball38,383£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,575£10.00
    Match 312,139£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball925£20.00
    Match 4352£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball30£250
    Match 53£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000