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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 18 September 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 16
  2. 18
  3. 27
  4. 29
  5. 37
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 21% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,632 of 3,064 under them

← 2024-09-17All recent draws2024-09-20 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed16 18 27 29 37 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 September 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

49oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 43% of every possible ticket.

  • sum87th
  • odd64th
  • low31th
  • widest gap18th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread20th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 337 of each

16332times
18364times
27333times
29350times
37

Prize breakdown · 2024-09-18

  • Lines in play≈ 1.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£606.7Kto 110k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.18

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£101.8K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£199.1K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball24%£146.9K
  • 5 other tiers26%£158.8K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.18 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

306times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 188 of each

5193times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,631 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (16, 18, 29, 37) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 15 December 2023 — its closest relative in 2,631 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 54% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 September 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

127

The numbers add up to 127 — the 86th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 2.3 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball23≈ 30 by chance£250
  • Match 4281≈ 389 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball917≈ 987 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,165≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,180≈ 13k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball39,828≈ 41k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball48,977≈ 49k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,180 winners, 21% fewer than the 13k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball48,977£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball39,828£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball10,165£10.00
    Match 310,180£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball917£20.00
    Match 4281£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball23£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000