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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 21 August 2024

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 2
  3. 6
  4. 17
  5. 22
  6. 11

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 7% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,616 of 3,063 under them

← 2024-08-20All recent draws2024-08-23 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 2 6 17 22 + 1129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 August 2024 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 24% of every possible ticket.

  • sum1th
  • odd31th
  • low89th
  • widest gap34th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread20th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 335 of each

1331times
2335times
6347times
17320times
22

Prize breakdown · 2024-08-21

  • Lines in play≈ 1.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£573.8Kto 99k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.15

Where the money went

  • Match 320%£115.3K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31%£176.7K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball21%£123.0K
  • 5 other tiers28%£158.7K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.15 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

347times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 187 of each

11182times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,615 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 2, 17, 22) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 3 May 2023 — its closest relative in 2,615 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 54% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 August 2024): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

48

The numbers add up to 48 — the 1th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

6 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.1× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 1.9 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22≈ 25 by chance£250
  • Match 4364≈ 326 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball893≈ 827 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,393≈ 8.8k by chance£10.00
  • Match 311,534≈ 11k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball35,345≈ 34k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball41,002≈ 41k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 893 winners, 8% more than the 827 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball41,002£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball35,345£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,393£10.00
    Match 311,534£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball893£20.00
    Match 4364£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball22£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000