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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Tuesday, 24 October 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 12
  3. 14
  4. 27
  5. 34
  6. 8

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 16% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,443 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-10-21All recent draws2023-10-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 12 14 27 34 + 829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 24 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

65oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 65 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 86% of every possible ticket.

  • sum31th
  • odd31th
  • low64th
  • widest gap51th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread81th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 313 of each

1311times
12285times
14285times
27310times
34

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-24

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£486.4Kto 87k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 13lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£84.5K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32%£157.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball24%£115.7K
  • 5 other tiers26%£128.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

332times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 174 of each

8180times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,442 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (1, 14, 27, 34) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 November 2022 — its closest relative in 2,442 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 52% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 October 2023): 1 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

88

The numbers add up to 88 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

14 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 1.8 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball17≈ 24 by chance£250
  • Match 4266≈ 306 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball688≈ 777 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,892≈ 8.3k by chance£10.00
  • Match 38,447≈ 10k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,552≈ 32k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,554≈ 39k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 8,447 winners, 16% fewer than the 10k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,554£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,552£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,892£10.00
    Match 38,447£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball688£20.00
    Match 4266£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball17£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000