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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 21 October 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 1
  2. 5
  3. 7
  4. 29
  5. 30
  6. 6

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 14% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,442 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-10-20All recent draws2023-10-24 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed1 5 7 29 30 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

43oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 29% of every possible ticket.

  • sum12th
  • odd89th
  • low64th
  • widest gap95th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 313 of each

1310times
5310times
7325times
29329times
30

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-21

  • Lines in play≈ 1.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£890.4Kto 154k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.23

Where the money went

  • Match 322%£193.8K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£266.8K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball22%£194.7K
  • 5 other tiers26%£235.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.23 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

353times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 174 of each

6160times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,441 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 29, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 September 2023 — its closest relative in 2,441 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (20 October 2023): 1 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

72

The numbers add up to 72 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 29–30. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 3.0 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball40≈ 40 by chance£250
  • Match 4545≈ 515 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,268≈ 1.3k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball14,017≈ 14k by chance£10.00
  • Match 319,384≈ 17k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball53,363≈ 54k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball64,889≈ 65k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 19,384 winners, 14% more than the 17k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball64,889£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball53,363£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball14,017£10.00
    Match 319,384£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,268£20.00
    Match 4545£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball40£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000