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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 11 October 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 3
  2. 6
  3. 9
  4. 10
  5. 32
  6. 7

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 14% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,436 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-10-10All recent draws2023-10-13 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed3 6 9 10 32 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

39oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 39 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 22% of every possible ticket.

  • sum5th
  • odd31th
  • low89th
  • widest gap95th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread59th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 312 of each

3293times
6333times
9291times
10327times
32

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-11

  • Lines in play≈ 1.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£723.1Kto 129k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.20

Where the money went

  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball17%£124.9K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£236.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball23%£164.9K
  • 5 other tiers27%£197.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.20 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

329times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 174 of each

7176times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,435 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (3, 6, 9, 10) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 10 March 2010 — its closest relative in 2,435 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 October 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

60

The numbers add up to 60 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 9–10. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

3 had not appeared for 49 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 2.6 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball38≈ 34 by chance£250
  • Match 4349≈ 436 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,192≈ 1.1k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,492≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 312,371≈ 14k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball47,269≈ 46k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball54,958≈ 55k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 12,371 winners, 14% fewer than the 14k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball54,958£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball47,269£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,492£10.00
    Match 312,371£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,192£20.00
    Match 4349£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball38£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000