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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 20 September 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 10
  2. 19
  3. 20
  4. 21
  5. 26
  6. 14

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 28% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,424 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-09-19All recent draws2023-09-22 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed10 19 20 21 26 + 1429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 20 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

47oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 47 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 36% of every possible ticket.

  • sum44th
  • odd31th
  • low64th
  • widest gap18th
  • neighbours96th
  • spread7th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 311 of each

10324times
19320times
20311times
21319times
26

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-20

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£551.9Kto 92k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • Match 323%£124.3K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball29%£162.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball20%£110.9K
  • 5 other tiers28%£154.4K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

322times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 173 of each

14175times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,423 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (10, 19, 20, 26) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 May 2018 — its closest relative in 2,423 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 51% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 September 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

96

The numbers add up to 96 — the 43th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20, 20–21. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.9× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 1.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball26≈ 23 by chance£250
  • Match 4331≈ 293 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball826≈ 745 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,830≈ 7.9k by chance£10.00
  • Match 312,431≈ 9.7k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32,460≈ 31k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,951≈ 37k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 12,431 winners, 28% more than the 9.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball36,951£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball32,460£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball8,830£10.00
    Match 312,431£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball826£20.00
    Match 4331£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball26£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000