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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 5 August 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 11
  2. 16
  3. 21
  4. 30
  5. 31
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 4% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,398 of 3,063 under them

← 2023-08-04All recent draws2023-08-08 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed11 16 21 30 31 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 5 August 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

55oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 55 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 58% of every possible ticket.

  • sum64th
  • odd64th
  • low31th
  • widest gap18th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread17th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 307 of each

11308times
16307times
21318times
30343times
31

Prize breakdown · 2023-08-05

  • Lines in play≈ 2.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.1Mto 182k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.27

Where the money went

  • Match 319%£205.2K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£327.9K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball20%£225.5K
  • 5 other tiers31%£348.0K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.27 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

327times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 171 of each

5176times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,397 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (16, 21, 30) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 March 2023 — its closest relative in 2,397 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (4 August 2023): 11 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

109

The numbers add up to 109 — the 64th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 57≈ 3.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball73≈ 46 by chance£250
  • Match 4787≈ 597 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,904≈ 1.5k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball17,794≈ 16k by chance£10.00
  • Match 320,516≈ 20k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball65,571≈ 63k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball75,182≈ 75k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 787 winners, 32% more than the 597 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball75,182£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball65,571£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball17,794£10.00
    Match 320,516£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,904£20.00
    Match 4787£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball73£250
    Match 57£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000