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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Friday, 21 April 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 5
  2. 14
  3. 21
  4. 31
  5. 37
  6. 5

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 15% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,337 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-04-19All recent draws2023-04-22 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed5 14 21 31 37 + 529 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 21 April 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

52oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 52 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 52% of every possible ticket.

  • sum63th
  • odd89th
  • low31th
  • widest gap26th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread76th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 299 of each

5291times
14277times
21310times
31316times
37

Prize breakdown · 2023-04-21

  • Lines in play≈ 1.3Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£585.4Kto 105k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.16

Where the money went

  • Match 317%£100.0K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball33%£194.5K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball23%£135.2K
  • 5 other tiers27%£155.6K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.16 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

277times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 167 of each

5171times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,336 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 21, 37) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 6 September 2022 — its closest relative in 2,336 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (19 April 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

108

The numbers add up to 108 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

37 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 51≈ 2.1 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball27≈ 28 by chance£250
  • Match 4266≈ 358 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball905≈ 909 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,918≈ 9.7k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,001≈ 12k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball38,903≈ 38k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball45,078≈ 45k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 10,001 winners, 15% fewer than the 12k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball45,078£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball38,903£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball9,918£10.00
    Match 310,001£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball905£20.00
    Match 4266£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball27£250
    Match 51£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000