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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 18 March 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 19
  2. 20
  3. 25
  4. 28
  5. 31
  6. 14

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 12% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,318 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-03-17All recent draws2023-03-21 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed19 20 25 28 31 + 1429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 18 March 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

38oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 38 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 19% of every possible ticket.

  • sum83th
  • odd64th
  • low31th
  • widest gap2th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread2th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 297 of each

19306times
20299times
25282times
28299times
31

Prize breakdown · 2023-03-18

  • Lines in play≈ 1.7Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.3Mto 140k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1 winnerchance said 0.21

Where the money went

  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball38%£500.0K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball19%£246.5K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball13%£176.1K
  • 6 other tiers29%£384.5K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1≈ 0.21 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

311times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 166 of each

14170times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,317 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (19, 20, 28, 31) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 28 August 2018 — its closest relative in 2,317 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 50% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (17 March 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

123

The numbers add up to 123 — the 82th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 19–20. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

31 had not appeared for 32 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 1% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 52≈ 2.7 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball28≈ 36 by chance£250
  • Match 4447≈ 466 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,133≈ 1.2k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,737≈ 13k by chance£10.00
  • Match 317,279≈ 15k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball49,294≈ 49k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball58,690≈ 59k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.7M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 17,279 winners, 12% more than the 15k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball58,690£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball49,294£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball12,737£10.00
    Match 317,279£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,133£20.00
    Match 4447£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball28£250
    Match 52£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball1£500,000