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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Wednesday, 15 February 2023

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 22
  2. 26
  3. 28
  4. 29
  5. 39
  6. 2

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 7% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,300 of 3,064 under them

← 2023-02-14All recent draws2023-02-17 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed22 26 28 29 39 + 229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 February 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

32oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 32 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 11% of every possible ticket.

  • sum97th
  • odd31th
  • low1th
  • widest gap26th
  • neighbours75th
  • spread9th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 295 of each

22306times
26306times
28295times
29315times
39

Prize breakdown · 2023-02-15

  • Lines in play≈ 1.1Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£528.1Kto 89k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.14

Where the money went

  • Match 320%£107.4K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball29%£155.4K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball22%£114.4K
  • 5 other tiers29%£150.9K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.14 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

283times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 164 of each

2150times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,299 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (26, 28, 39) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 16 February 2022 — its closest relative in 2,299 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (14 February 2023): 22, 39 carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

144

The numbers add up to 144 — the 97th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 28–29. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

28 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 55≈ 1.8 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball23≈ 23 by chance£250
  • Match 4284≈ 303 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball702≈ 769 by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,774≈ 8.2k by chance£10.00
  • Match 310,735≈ 10.0k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,084≈ 32k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,129≈ 38k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈1.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 702 winners, 9% fewer than the 769 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball38,129£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball31,084£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball7,774£10.00
    Match 310,735£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball702£20.00
    Match 4284£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball23£250
    Match 55£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000