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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Thunderball · draw
ResultThunderball
Jackpot£500,000
The crowdHeld 7% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 2,200 of 3,063 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 24 August 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 67% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 282 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 2,199 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (5, 15, 37) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 25 February 2022 — its closest relative in 2,199 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (23 August 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 103 — the 54th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. Side-by-side numbers: 36–37. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →36 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈1.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus Bonus Ball — 757 winners, 8% fewer than the 826 an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 40,947 | £3.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 33,506 | £5.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 8,358 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 | 9,984 | £10.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 757 | £20.00 |
| Match 4 | 252 | £100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 31 | £250 |
| Match 5 | 1 | £5,000 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | £500,000 |