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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Thunderball · draw

Saturday, 22 May 2021

ResultThunderball

Single source
  1. 5
  2. 10
  3. 18
  4. 20
  5. 36
  6. 9

Jackpot£500,000

The crowdHeld 5% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/39 + 1/14 · since Jan 2010draw 1,938 of 3,064 under them

← 2021-05-21All recent draws2021-05-25 →

Where this result came from

SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Primarycommercial feed5 10 18 20 36 + 929 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 22 May 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

45oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 33% of every possible ticket.

  • sum33th
  • odd9th
  • low89th
  • widest gap74th
  • neighbours28th
  • spread70th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 248 of each

5231times
10260times
18267times
20258times
36

Prize breakdown · 2021-05-22

  • Lines in play≈ 2.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out£1.0Mto 175k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 12lines took a prize
  • Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0 winnerschance said 0.27

Where the money went

  • Match 320%£206.6K
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball30%£306.3K
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball22%£225.0K
  • 5 other tiers28%£285.2K
Tier1101001k10k100kWinners1101001k10k100k1MPrize each
  1. Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0≈ 0.27 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

227times
Stars · a separate 1-of-14 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 138 of each

9109times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,937 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (5, 10, 20, 36) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 19 March 2011 — its closest relative in 1,937 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 44% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (21 May 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 52% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (7% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

89

The numbers add up to 89 — the 32th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 100. No two numbers side by side. 44% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

20 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 8 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
£500,000
  • Match 53≈ 3.5 by chance£5,000
  • Match 4 plus Bonus Ball50≈ 46 by chance£250
  • Match 4686≈ 596 by chance£100
  • Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,553≈ 1.5k by chance£20.00
  • Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,800≈ 16k by chance£10.00
  • Match 320,664≈ 20k by chance£10.00
  • Match 1 plus Bonus Ball61,250≈ 63k by chance£5.00
  • Match 0 plus Bonus Ball75,016≈ 75k by chance£3.00
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 686 winners, 15% more than the 596 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    Match 0 plus Bonus Ball75,016£3.00
    Match 1 plus Bonus Ball61,250£5.00
    Match 2 plus Bonus Ball15,800£10.00
    Match 320,664£10.00
    Match 3 plus Bonus Ball1,553£20.00
    Match 4686£100
    Match 4 plus Bonus Ball50£250
    Match 53£5,000
    Match 5 plus Bonus Ball0£500,000