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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Wednesday, 11 October 2023

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20233122
  1. 6
  2. 10
  3. 15
  4. 16
  5. 24
  6. 8

Jackpot€12,000,000

The crowdHeld 19% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,350 of 3,001 under them

← 2023-10-09All recent draws2023-10-14 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official6 10 15 16 24 + 823 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed6 10 15 16 24 + 829 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 October 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

15oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 15 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 1% of every possible ticket.

  • sum4th
  • odd9th
  • low99th
  • widest gap5th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread5th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 240 of each

6240times
10232times
15263times
16247times
24

Prize breakdown · 2023-10-11

  • Lines in play≈ 5.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€15.3Mto 795k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 7lines took a prize
  • rang11 winnerchance said 0.27

Where the money went

  • rang179%€12.0M
  • rang87.6%€1.2M
  • rang95.8%€885.6K
  • 6 other tiers8.0%€1.2M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10M100MPrize each
  1. rang11≈ 0.27 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

242times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 235 of each

8210times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,349 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (10, 15, 24) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 10 April 2023 — its closest relative in 2,349 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (9 October 2023): 16 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

71

The numbers add up to 71 — the 4th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 15–16. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

24 had not appeared for 24 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 2.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€12,000,000
  • rang23≈ 2.5 by chance€67,755
  • rang368≈ 60 by chance€730
  • rang4772≈ 539 by chance€232
  • rang53,054≈ 2.6k by chance€35.00
  • rang627,626≈ 23k by chance€13.90
  • rang736,339≈ 36k by chance€8.20
  • rang8324,561≈ 325k by chance€3.60
  • rang9402,533€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang4 — 772 winners, 43% more than the 539 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang11€12,000,000
    rang23€67,755
    rang368€730
    rang4772€232
    rang53,054€35.00
    rang627,626€13.90
    rang736,339€8.20
    rang8324,561€3.60
    rang9402,533€2.20