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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 25 September 2023

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20233115
  1. 4
  2. 13
  3. 21
  4. 27
  5. 46
  6. 4

Jackpot€5,000,000

The crowdHeld 14% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,343 of 3,001 under them

← 2023-09-23All recent draws2023-09-27 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official4 13 21 27 46 + 423 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed4 13 21 27 46 + 429 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 25 September 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

61oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 61 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 76% of every possible ticket.

  • sum33th
  • odd65th
  • low65th
  • widest gap68th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread84th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 239 of each

4240times
13266times
21226times
27242times
46

Prize breakdown · 2023-09-25

  • Lines in play≈ 3.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.4Mto 552k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.18

Where the money went

  • rang612%€288.5K
  • rang836%€881.4K
  • rang926%€630.3K
  • 5 other tiers26%€627.6K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.18 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

237times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 234 of each

4235times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,342 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 21, 27, 46) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 26 August 2019 — its closest relative in 2,342 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 24% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (23 September 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

111

The numbers add up to 111 — the 32th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

21 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€5,000,000
  • rang21≈ 1.7 by chance€152,607
  • rang371≈ 41 by chance€525
  • rang4452≈ 366 by chance€297
  • rang52,111≈ 1.7k by chance€38.00
  • rang617,172≈ 16k by chance€16.80
  • rang725,655≈ 24k by chance€8.70
  • rang8220,350≈ 220k by chance€4.00
  • rang9286,504€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 2,111 winners, 21% more than the 1.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€5,000,000
    rang21€152,607
    rang371€525
    rang4452€297
    rang52,111€38.00
    rang617,172€16.80
    rang725,655€8.70
    rang8220,350€4.00
    rang9286,504€2.20