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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 4 March 2023

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20233027
  1. 12
  2. 25
  3. 35
  4. 40
  5. 42
  6. 6

Jackpot€2,000,000

The crowdHeld 3% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,255 of 3,001 under them

← 2023-03-01All recent draws2023-03-06 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official12 25 35 40 42 + 623 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed12 25 35 40 42 + 629 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 March 2023 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

58oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 67% of every possible ticket.

  • sum83th
  • odd32th
  • low32th
  • widest gap28th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread33th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 230 of each

12218times
25210times
35240times
40232times
42

Prize breakdown · 2023-03-04

  • Lines in play≈ 4.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€4.1Mto 828k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.26

Where the money went

  • rang612%€492.5K
  • rang837%€1.5M
  • rang925%€1.0M
  • 5 other tiers26%€1.1M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.26 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

210times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 225 of each

6208times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,254 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (12, 25, 35) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 22 October 2022 — its closest relative in 2,254 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (1 March 2023): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

154

The numbers add up to 154 — the 82th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

25 had not appeared for 25 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€2,000,000
  • rang21≈ 2.3 by chance€260,990
  • rang355≈ 57 by chance€1,158
  • rang4475≈ 509 by chance€484
  • rang52,231≈ 2.4k by chance€61.50
  • rang620,104≈ 22k by chance€24.50
  • rang731,875≈ 34k by chance€12.00
  • rang8306,412≈ 306k by chance€4.90
  • rang9466,824€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 2,231 winners, 8% fewer than the 2.4k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€2,000,000
    rang21€260,990
    rang355€1,158
    rang4475€484
    rang52,231€61.50
    rang620,104€24.50
    rang731,875€12.00
    rang8306,412€4.90
    rang9466,824€2.20