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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 17 October 2022

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20222125
  1. 16
  2. 20
  3. 38
  4. 40
  5. 49
  6. 2

Jackpot€4,000,000

The crowdHeld 3% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,196 of 3,001 under them

← 2022-10-15All recent draws2022-10-19 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official16 20 38 40 49 + 223 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed16 20 38 40 49 + 229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 17 October 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

56oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 56 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 60% of every possible ticket.

  • sum89th
  • odd9th
  • low32th
  • widest gap62th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread45th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 224 of each

16232times
20220times
38243times
40227times
49

Prize breakdown · 2022-10-17

  • Lines in play≈ 2.5Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.3Mto 428k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • rang612%€282.2K
  • rang838%€859.1K
  • rang923%€532.3K
  • 5 other tiers27%€615.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

227times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 220 of each

2203times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,195 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (16, 20, 49) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 25 September 2021 — its closest relative in 2,195 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (15 October 2022): 16 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

163

The numbers add up to 163 — the 89th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

38 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€4,000,000
  • rang21≈ 1.2 by chance€149,399
  • rang312≈ 29 by chance€3,039
  • rang4213≈ 264 by chance€617
  • rang51,016≈ 1.3k by chance€77.30
  • rang610,609≈ 11k by chance€26.60
  • rang715,052≈ 18k by chance€14.60
  • rang8159,092≈ 159k by chance€5.40
  • rang9241,952€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.5M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 1,016 winners, 20% fewer than the 1.3k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€4,000,000
    rang21€149,399
    rang312€3,039
    rang4213€617
    rang51,016€77.30
    rang610,609€26.60
    rang715,052€14.60
    rang8159,092€5.40
    rang9241,952€2.20