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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 16 October 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211124
  1. 5
  2. 15
  3. 23
  4. 37
  5. 46
  6. 10

Jackpot€9,000,000

The crowdHeld 24% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,039 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-10-13All recent draws2021-10-18 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official5 15 23 37 46 + 1023 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed5 15 23 37 46 + 1029 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

61oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 61 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 74% of every possible ticket.

  • sum51th
  • odd89th
  • low65th
  • widest gap35th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread80th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 208 of each

5207times
15223times
23213times
37207times
46

Prize breakdown · 2021-10-16

  • Lines in play≈ 5.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€4.5Mto 873k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 7lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.31

Where the money went

  • rang613%€571.2K
  • rang838%€1.7M
  • rang921%€972.3K
  • 5 other tiers27%€1.2M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.31 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

201times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 204 of each

10196times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,038 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 23, 46) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 6 March 2019 — its closest relative in 2,038 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 October 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 10 repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

126

The numbers add up to 126 — the 51th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

23 had not appeared for 52 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.8× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 8% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€9,000,000
  • rang24≈ 2.8 by chance€75,535
  • rang343≈ 68 by chance€1,715
  • rang4599≈ 615 by chance€444
  • rang52,236≈ 2.9k by chance€71.00
  • rang626,444≈ 26k by chance€21.60
  • rang732,078≈ 41k by chance€13.80
  • rang8370,038≈ 370k by chance€4.70
  • rang9441,977€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 2,236 winners, 24% fewer than the 2.9k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€9,000,000
    rang24€75,535
    rang343€1,715
    rang4599€444
    rang52,236€71.00
    rang626,444€21.60
    rang732,078€13.80
    rang8370,038€4.70
    rang9441,977€2.20