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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 4 October 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211119
  1. 5
  2. 7
  3. 15
  4. 19
  5. 44
  6. 1

Jackpot€4,000,000

The crowdHeld 79% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,034 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-10-02All recent draws2021-10-06 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official5 7 15 19 44 + 123 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed5 7 15 19 44 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 October 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

35oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 35 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 15% of every possible ticket.

  • sum13th
  • odd89th
  • low89th
  • widest gap90th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread71th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 207 of each

5206times
7210times
15221times
19191times
44

Prize breakdown · 2021-10-04

  • Lines in play≈ 4.0Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.3Mto 503k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 8lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.21

Where the money went

  • rang613%€294.8K
  • rang839%€906.3K
  • rang920%€457.2K
  • 5 other tiers28%€643.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.21 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

209times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 203 of each

1219times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,033 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 19, 44) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 17 February 2020 — its closest relative in 2,033 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (2 October 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

90

The numbers add up to 90 — the 12th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

19 had not appeared for 17 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.5× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€4,000,000
  • rang21≈ 1.9 by chance€156,281
  • rang346≈ 46 by chance€829
  • rang4536≈ 418 by chance€257
  • rang51,631≈ 2.0k by chance€50.40
  • rang621,362≈ 18k by chance€13.80
  • rang720,137≈ 28k by chance€11.40
  • rang8251,751≈ 252k by chance€3.60
  • rang9207,811€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang7 — 20,137 winners, 28% fewer than the 28k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€4,000,000
    rang21€156,281
    rang346€829
    rang4536€257
    rang51,631€50.40
    rang621,362€13.80
    rang720,137€11.40
    rang8251,751€3.60
    rang9207,811€2.20