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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 14 August 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211097
  1. 4
  2. 28
  3. 35
  4. 42
  5. 49
  6. 7

Jackpot€14,000,000

The crowdHeld 41% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 2,012 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-08-11All recent draws2021-08-16 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official4 28 35 42 49 + 723 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed4 28 35 42 49 + 729 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 14 August 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

35oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 35 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 15% of every possible ticket.

  • sum86th
  • odd32th
  • low9th
  • widest gap88th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread94th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 205 of each

4206times
28204times
35208times
42194times
49

Prize breakdown · 2021-08-14

  • Lines in play≈ 4.4Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€4.0Mto 1.0M winning lines
  • Won something1 in 4lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.23

Where the money went

  • rang610%€393.8K
  • rang830%€1.2M
  • rang938%€1.5M
  • 5 other tiers22%€858.4K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10M100MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.23 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

206times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each

7224times

Every number was expected about that many times after 2,011 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (4, 35, 42, 49) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 8 August 2020 — its closest relative in 2,011 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 21% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (11 August 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

158

The numbers add up to 158 — the 85th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

49 had not appeared for 46 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 11% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€14,000,000
  • rang21≈ 2.1 by chance€208,299
  • rang3134≈ 51 by chance€403
  • rang4447≈ 456 by chance€403
  • rang53,163≈ 2.2k by chance€34.60
  • rang618,754≈ 20k by chance€21.00
  • rang743,780≈ 30k by chance€7.00
  • rang8274,397≈ 274k by chance€4.40
  • rang9692,759€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈4.4M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 3,163 winners, 45% more than the 2.2k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€14,000,000
    rang21€208,299
    rang3134€403
    rang4447€403
    rang53,163€34.60
    rang618,754€21.00
    rang743,780€7.00
    rang8274,397€4.40
    rang9692,759€2.20