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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 12 July 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211083
  1. 8
  2. 30
  3. 31
  4. 37
  5. 38
  6. 1

Jackpot€3,000,000

The crowdHeld 12% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,998 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-07-10All recent draws2021-07-14 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official8 30 31 37 38 + 123 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed8 30 31 37 38 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 July 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 23% of every possible ticket.

  • sum73th
  • odd32th
  • low9th
  • widest gap81th
  • neighbours98th
  • spread33th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 204 of each

8181times
30194times
31204times
37202times
38

Prize breakdown · 2021-07-12

  • Lines in play≈ 2.6Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.3Mto 394k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.13

Where the money went

  • rang613%€286.9K
  • rang839%€878.7K
  • rang921%€463.5K
  • 4 other tiers28%€624.6K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.13 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

219times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each

1216times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,997 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (30, 37, 38) and 1 of 1 stars with the draw of 17 April 2021 — its closest relative in 1,997 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (10 July 2021): 38 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 1 repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

144

The numbers add up to 144 — the 72th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31, 37–38. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

30 had not appeared for 37 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€3,000,000
  • rang20≈ 1.2 by chance€151,571
  • rang322≈ 29 by chance€8,571
  • rang4165≈ 265 by chance€809
  • rang5832≈ 1.3k by chance€95.80
  • rang69,255≈ 11k by chance€31.00
  • rang713,350≈ 18k by chance€16.70
  • rang8159,763≈ 160k by chance€5.50
  • rang9210,676€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.6M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 832 winners, 34% fewer than the 1.3k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€3,000,000
    rang20€151,571
    rang322€8,571
    rang4165€809
    rang5832€95.80
    rang69,255€31.00
    rang713,350€16.70
    rang8159,763€5.50
    rang9210,676€2.20