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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 10 July 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211082
  1. 3
  2. 38
  3. 42
  4. 43
  5. 46
  6. 1

Jackpot€2,000,000

The crowdHeld 2% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,997 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-07-07All recent draws2021-07-12 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official3 38 42 43 46 + 123 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed3 38 42 43 46 + 129 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 July 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

27oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 27 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 6% of every possible ticket.

  • sum94th
  • odd32th
  • low9th
  • widest gap99th
  • neighbours80th
  • spread88th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 204 of each

3206times
38218times
42191times
43206times
46

Prize breakdown · 2021-07-10

  • Lines in play≈ 3.9Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€3.7Mto 627k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.20

Where the money went

  • rang613%€474.6K
  • rang839%€1.4M
  • rang921%€767.0K
  • 4 other tiers28%€1.0M
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.20 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

195times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 200 of each

1215times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,996 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (38, 42, 43) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 2 November 2020 — its closest relative in 1,996 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (7 July 2021): 46 carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

172

The numbers add up to 172 — the 94th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. Side-by-side numbers: 42–43. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

42 had not appeared for 19 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.4× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 14% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€2,000,000
  • rang20≈ 1.8 by chance€251,077
  • rang325≈ 44 by chance€12,494
  • rang4274≈ 400 by chance€807
  • rang51,402≈ 1.9k by chance€94.20
  • rang615,115≈ 17k by chance€31.40
  • rang720,527≈ 27k by chance€18.00
  • rang8240,939≈ 241k by chance€6.00
  • rang9348,652€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈3.9M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 1,402 winners, 27% fewer than the 1.9k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€2,000,000
    rang20€251,077
    rang325€12,494
    rang4274€807
    rang51,402€94.20
    rang615,115€31.40
    rang720,527€18.00
    rang8240,939€6.00
    rang9348,652€2.20