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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Saturday, 15 May 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211058
  1. 7
  2. 24
  3. 29
  4. 31
  5. 47
  6. 3

Jackpot€4,000,000

The crowdHeld 3% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,973 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-05-12All recent draws2021-05-17 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official7 24 29 31 47 + 323 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed7 24 29 31 47 + 329 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 May 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

59oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 59 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 70% of every possible ticket.

  • sum66th
  • odd89th
  • low32th
  • widest gap55th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread75th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 201 of each

7201times
24199times
29214times
31202times
47

Prize breakdown · 2021-05-15

  • Lines in play≈ 5.2Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€3.8Mto 882k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.27

Where the money went

  • rang611%€437.6K
  • rang835%€1.3M
  • rang928%€1.1M
  • 5 other tiers25%€953.7K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.27 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

191times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 197 of each

3194times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,972 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 29, 47) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 April 2020 — its closest relative in 1,972 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (12 May 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

138

The numbers add up to 138 — the 66th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

29 had not appeared for 26 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 5% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€4,000,000
  • rang21≈ 2.4 by chance€232,140
  • rang361≈ 60 by chance€929
  • rang4519≈ 539 by chance€394
  • rang52,769≈ 2.6k by chance€44.10
  • rang622,672≈ 23k by chance€19.30
  • rang738,460≈ 36k by chance€8.80
  • rang8324,465≈ 324k by chance€4.10
  • rang9493,098€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈5.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 2,769 winners, 8% more than the 2.6k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€4,000,000
    rang21€232,140
    rang361€929
    rang4519€394
    rang52,769€44.10
    rang622,672€19.30
    rang738,460€8.80
    rang8324,465€4.10
    rang9493,098€2.20