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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

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Loto · draw

Monday, 15 March 2021

ResultLoto

VerifiedDraw #20211032
  1. 15
  2. 29
  3. 33
  4. 38
  5. 41
  6. 2

Jackpot€5,000,000

The crowdHeld about as often as an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick

Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at

Rules5/49 + 1/10 · since Oct 2008draw 1,947 of 3,001 under them

← 2021-03-13All recent draws2021-03-17 →

Where this result came from

Sources2 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.

  • Secondary 3official15 29 33 38 41 + 223 Aug 2026, 15:48 UTC
  • Primarycommercial feed15 29 33 38 41 + 229 Aug 2026, 09:27 UTC

This draw, read by every tool

What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 March 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.

41oddordinary

How ordinary this draw is

Scored 41 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 24% of every possible ticket.

  • sum84th
  • odd89th
  • low9th
  • widest gap35th
  • neighbours32th
  • spread20th
Draw Fingerprints →

Each number, as it stood before this draw

Times drawn before — chance expected 199 of each

15211times
29213times
33209times
38211times
41

Prize breakdown · 2021-03-15

  • Lines in play≈ 2.8Mas the winner counts imply
  • Paid out€2.5Mto 465k winning lines
  • Won something1 in 6lines took a prize
  • rang10 winnerschance said 0.15

Where the money went

  • rang612%€304.4K
  • rang838%€935.1K
  • rang923%€568.5K
  • 5 other tiers27%€664.1K
Tier1101001k10k100k1MWinners1101001k10k100k1M10MPrize each
  1. rang10≈ 0.15 by chance

Play these numbers? Read them as your ticket →

236times
Stars · a separate 1-of-10 machine

Times drawn before — chance expected 195 of each

2178times

Every number was expected about that many times after 1,946 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.

Frequency Explorer →

Its nearest twin

Shares 4 of 5 numbers (15, 29, 33, 38) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 23 May 2011 — its closest relative in 1,946 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 20% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (13 March 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 43% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (10% expected).

Carry-over / Déjà Vu →

Sum and shape

156

The numbers add up to 156 — the 84th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 125. No two numbers side by side. 36% of draws have at least one such pair.

Sum Distribution →

The longest wait in this draw

15 had not appeared for 9 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.

The Unpopular Numbers Edge →
€5,000,000
  • rang21≈ 1.3 by chance€161,308
  • rang327≈ 33 by chance€1,458
  • rang4348≈ 293 by chance€408
  • rang51,059≈ 1.4k by chance€80.10
  • rang612,474≈ 13k by chance€24.40
  • rang715,773≈ 20k by chance€15.00
  • rang8176,435≈ 176k by chance€5.30
  • rang9258,405€2.20
    • Winners, log scale
    • Prize each, log scale
    • Where chance put the count

    The rings take the ≈2.8M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang5 — 1,059 winners, 24% fewer than the 1.4k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.

    Show the published table
    MatchWinnersPrize each
    rang10€5,000,000
    rang21€161,308
    rang327€1,458
    rang4348€408
    rang51,059€80.10
    rang612,474€24.40
    rang715,773€15.00
    rang8176,435€5.30
    rang9258,405€2.20