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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£14,611,500
The crowdHeld 4% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 483 of 1,049 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 May 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 56 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 60% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 48 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 482 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (14, 25, 43) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 5 February 2019 — its closest relative in 482 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 90% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (7 May 2021): 14 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 162 — the 86th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →25 had not appeared for 16 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.5× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 13% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈3.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang8 — 2,719 winners, 10% fewer than the 3.0k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| rang1 | 0 | €0.00 |
| rang2 | 0 | €507,956 |
| rang3 | 2 | €23,744 |
| rang4 | 4 | €1,946 |
| rang5 | 110 | €137 |
| rang6 | 187 | €72.10 |
| rang7 | 183 | €50.30 |
| rang8 | 2,719 | €16.30 |
| rang9 | 4,401 | €12.30 |
| rang10 | 8,617 | €11.40 |
| rang11 | 15,789 | €7.10 |
| rang12 | 65,159 | €5.90 |
| rang13 | 129,681 | €4.70 |