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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£15,225,200
The crowdHeld 39% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/12 · since Sep 2016draw 396 of 1,049 under them
Sources3 independent sources agree, 1 official. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 July 2020 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 54% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 40 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 395 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (15, 30, 38) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 25 September 2018 — its closest relative in 395 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (7 July 2020): 23 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (32% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 123 — the 44th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →30 had not appeared for 29 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.1× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈8.2M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: rang13 — 227,549 winners, 39% fewer than the 375k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| rang1 | 0 | €0.00 |
| rang2 | 6 | €74,782 |
| rang3 | 4 | €11,236 |
| rang4 | 22 | €742 |
| rang5 | 225 | €93.60 |
| rang6 | 680 | €36.00 |
| rang7 | 413 | €35.10 |
| rang8 | 8,672 | €9.30 |
| rang9 | 9,628 | €8.80 |
| rang10 | 17,021 | €8.60 |
| rang11 | 43,749 | €4.70 |
| rang12 | 124,906 | €4.60 |
| rang13 | 227,549 | €3.90 |