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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£10,656,000
The crowdHeld 25% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 401 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 400 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 March 2015 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 67% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 40 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 400 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 23, 31) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 16 December 2011 — its closest relative in 400 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 85% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (6 March 2015): 23, 30 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 2 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 92 — the 13th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 30–31. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →31 had not appeared for 10 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈18M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 799 winners, 26% more than the 634 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,000,577 | £3.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 470,214 | £6.30 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 116,637 | £9.30 |
| Match 3 | 69,657 | £8.90 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 22,369 | £17.30 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 33,967 | £10.90 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,585 | £53.10 |
| Match 4 | 1,537 | £76.60 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 799 | £148 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 39 | £3,454 |
| Match 5 | 3 | £89,814 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 5 | £0.00 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £10,656,000 |