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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£12,433,500
The crowdHeld 17% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 287 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 286 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 February 2014 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 60 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 73% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 29 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 286 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (21, 37, 38) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 1 February 2013 — its closest relative in 286 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 75% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (31 January 2014): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 8 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 130 — the 52th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 37–38. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →21 had not appeared for 40 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈24M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 493 winners, 40% fewer than the 823 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 858,462 | £3.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 422,991 | £6.00 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 151,424 | £6.20 |
| Match 3 | 53,044 | £10.10 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 26,279 | £12.60 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 26,166 | £12.10 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,634 | £44.30 |
| Match 4 | 1,026 | £98.80 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 493 | £206 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 18 | £6,441 |
| Match 5 | 6 | £38,646 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 1 | £0.00 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £12,433,500 |