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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£12,453,000
The crowdHeld 68% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 280 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 279 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 10 January 2014 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 46 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 33% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 28 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 279 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (1, 11, 29) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 1 March 2013 — its closest relative in 279 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 74% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (7 January 2014): 2, 27 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 10 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 70 — the 3th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 1–2. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →11 had not appeared for 30 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.8× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 2% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈25M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 3,095 winners, 82% more than the 1.7k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,802,915 | £2.30 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 735,151 | £5.60 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 156,812 | £9.70 |
| Match 3 | 133,944 | £6.40 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 31,875 | £16.90 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 55,529 | £9.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,317 | £50.70 |
| Match 4 | 3,095 | £53.10 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,287 | £128 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 59 | £3,188 |
| Match 5 | 19 | £19,801 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 10 | £112,866 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £12,453,000 |