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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£79,750,000
The crowdHeld 5% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 146 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 145 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 28 September 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 49 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 40% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 15 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 145 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (26, 30) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 12 June 2012 — its closest relative in 145 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (25 September 2012): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 132 — the 55th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →20 had not appeared for 15 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈64M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 178,308 winners, 9% fewer than the 196k an even spread gives. The real crowd and an even spread agreed closely on this draw.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 2,685,248 | £2.90 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 1,386,578 | £5.50 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 410,460 | £6.90 |
| Match 3 | 178,308 | £9.00 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 77,815 | £12.80 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 92,587 | £10.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 5,319 | £41.00 |
| Match 4 | 4,120 | £74.10 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 2,137 | £143 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 106 | £3,293 |
| Match 5 | 31 | £22,518 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 18 | £116,345 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1 | £79,750,000 |