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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£21,084,008
The crowdHeld 5% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 104 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 103 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 4 May 2012 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 42 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 25% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 10 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 103 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (3, 41) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 20 April 2012 — its closest relative in 103 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (1 May 2012): 41 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 149 — the 75th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 39–40, 40–41. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →40 had not appeared for 33 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.7× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 10% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈29M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 plus Bonus Ball — 860 winners, 14% fewer than the 1.0k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little less popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,328,454 | £3.30 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 660,710 | £6.50 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 184,934 | £8.60 |
| Match 3 | 84,942 | £10.70 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 31,850 | £17.80 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 42,953 | £12.60 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,136 | £57.70 |
| Match 4 | 1,728 | £100 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 860 | £201 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 42 | £4,703 |
| Match 5 | 4 | £98,767 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 5 | £237,041 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £21,084,008 |