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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£13,108,500
The crowdHeld 48% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 38 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 37 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 September 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 58 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 67% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 4 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 37 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (2, 8) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 30 August 2011 — its closest relative in 37 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 94% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (13 September 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 10 repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 108 — the 26th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →39 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.0× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 7% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈28M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 3,021 winners, 55% more than the 1.9k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,815,692 | £2.50 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 790,199 | £5.60 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 178,828 | £9.20 |
| Match 3 | 126,376 | £7.40 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 34,213 | £17.10 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 54,940 | £10.20 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 2,489 | £51.30 |
| Match 4 | 3,021 | £59.20 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,231 | £145 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 54 | £3,788 |
| Match 5 | 10 | £40,909 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 3 | — |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1 | £13,108,500 |