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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£40,675,288
The crowdHeld 25% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 28 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 27 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 12 August 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 54 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 55% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 3 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 27 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 2 of 5 numbers (27, 37) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 29 July 2011 — its closest relative in 27 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 87% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (9 August 2011): 7 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 101 — the 20th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →10 had not appeared for 21 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.6× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈53M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls — 6,212 winners, 38% more than the 4.5k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,741,439 | £2.60 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 1,033,896 | £4.30 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 337,745 | £4.90 |
| Match 3 | 130,041 | £7.30 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 73,070 | £8.10 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 88,824 | £6.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 6,212 | £20.70 |
| Match 4 | 2,988 | £60.30 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 2,097 | £85.90 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 154 | £1,338 |
| Match 5 | 14 | £29,441 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 6 | £206,090 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £40,675,288 |