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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£23,440,308
The crowdHeld 87% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016draw 26 of 562 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/11 · May 2011 – Sep 2016 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 25 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 5 August 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 45 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 32% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 3 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 25 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 1 of 5 numbers (14) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 2 August 2011 — its closest relative in 25 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 100% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (2 August 2011): 14 carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (35% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 111 — the 30th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 13–14. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →13 had not appeared for 8 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈22M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 2 — 1,831,786 winners, 87% more than the 979k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 1,831,786 | £2.40 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 677,485 | £6.60 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 142,706 | £11.50 |
| Match 3 | 120,447 | £7.80 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 27,119 | £21.50 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 45,404 | £12.30 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 1,881 | £67.50 |
| Match 4 | 2,526 | £70.40 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 968 | £184 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 35 | £5,811 |
| Match 5 | 13 | £31,290 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 2 | £610,165 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £23,440,308 |