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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
EuroMillions · draw
ResultEuroMillions
Jackpot£13,152,000
The crowdHeld 38% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011draw 349 of 378 under them
SourcesOnly Primary (commercial feed) reported this draw, so there is nothing to check it against. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:38 UTC.
EuroMillions was a 5/50 + 2/9 · Feb 2004 – May 2011 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 348 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 15 October 2010 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 43 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 27% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 35 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 348 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (2, 31, 38) and 0 of 2 stars with the draw of 18 June 2010 — its closest relative in 348 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 81% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (8 October 2010): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (42% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 150 — the 76th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. No two numbers side by side. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →43 had not appeared for 22 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.6× as often as an average ticket — less popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 12% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈59M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 1,720 winners, 53% fewer than the 3.6k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 2 | 0 | — |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 947,104 | £7.90 |
| Match 1 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 573,970 | £5.50 |
| Match 3 | 86,437 | £17.10 |
| Match 2 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 91,805 | £15.10 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 59,147 | £27.10 |
| Match 3 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 5,600 | £56.20 |
| Match 4 | 1,720 | £128 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 1,242 | £254 |
| Match 4 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 103 | £4,591 |
| Match 5 | 7 | £94,569 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 7 | £333,245 |
| Match 5 plus 2 Bonus Balls | 0 | £13,152,000 |