Friday, 31 August 2007

Its nearest twin

Shares 3 of 5 numbers (6, 22, 37) and 1 of 2 stars with the draw of 1 June 2007 — its closest relative in 185 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 59% likelihood somewhere in that history.

From the draw just before (24 August 2007): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (42% expected).

Sum and shape

The numbers add up to 106 — the 24th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 22–23. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.

The longest wait in this draw

18 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.

How many people held it

A line like this is played about 1.2× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 6% of the jackpot.

Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.