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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
In Spiel 77 under the 7/9 · since Sep 2024 rules — 213 draws, 7 from 0–9.
Drawn 161 times in 213 draws against 149.1 expected, +1.78σ. Each draw is independent: after 0 draws away it is exactly as likely tonight as a number drawn yesterday.
Drawn 161 times in 213 draws · average wait 1.3 draws · longest completed wait 7 · drawn in the most recent draw
a completed wait — darker is longer the wait still running — a lower bound, not a finished gap
Sort a draw and 4 has a favourite seat — chance gives a small number the low positions more often. That is the shape of sorting, not of the machine.
Seen most often with these — chance gives every partner about 107.3 shared draws, and the leaders are simply the ones that came out ahead this time.
It has shared a draw with every one of the other 9 numbers; chance expected about 0.0 still unmet by now. Every pair →
Under the crowd model, 4 is picked about 1.34× as often as an indifferent choice — 6th most popular of 10. That changes nothing about whether it comes up, and everything about how many ways a jackpot on it would be shared.
| Date | Wait | Position | The draw |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | 2 | 5th | 0011479 |
| 2026-10-03 | 1 | 2nd | 3467778 |
| 2026-09-30 | 1 | 4th | 0134568 |
| 2026-09-26 | 2 | 3rd | 3345588 |
| 2026-09-19 | 4 | 4th | 0134588 |
| 2026-09-05 | 1 | 2nd | 0457899 |
| 2026-09-02 | 1 | 6th | 0033347 |
| 2026-08-29 | 2 | 5th | 0012457 |
| 2026-08-22 | 1 | 5th | 0012466 |
| 2026-08-19 | 0 | 4th | 002469 |
| 2026-08-19 | 1 | 4th | 002469 |
| 2026-08-15 | 5 | 3rd | 1145557 |
| 2026-07-29 | 0 | 5th | 023346 |
| 2026-07-29 | 2 | 5th | 023346 |
| 2026-07-22 | 0 | 5th | 001247 |
| 2026-07-22 | 2 | 5th | 001247 |
| 2026-07-15 | 1 | 5th | 0000456 |
| 2026-07-11 | 2 | 3rd | 2245779 |
| 2026-07-04 | 3 | 5th | 0223479 |
| 2026-06-24 | 1 | 3rd | 3346778 |
| 2026-06-20 | 1 | 2nd | 1455569 |
| 2026-06-17 | 2 | 4th | 0134799 |
| 2026-06-10 | 1 | 5th | 1223489 |
| 2026-06-06 | 1 | 1st | 4577788 |
Nothing here predicts the next draw. A number’s history is a record of a fair machine’s past, and the machine keeps none of it: 4 is drawn with probability 7/10 tonight whatever it did last week.
| 2026-05-09 | 1 | 4th | 0134569 |
| 2026-05-06 | 3 | 2nd | 3457889 |
| 2026-04-25 | 1 | 3rd | 1245688 |
| 2026-04-22 | 1 | 4th | 0124556 |
| 2026-04-18 | 0 | 4th | 012468 |
| 2026-04-18 | 1 | 4th | 012468 |
| 2026-04-15 | 0 | 5th | 003345 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1 | 5th | 003345 |
| 2026-04-11 | 1 | 4th | 1234789 |
| 2026-04-08 | 0 | 3rd | 124589 |
| 2026-04-08 | 1 | 3rd | 124589 |
| 2026-04-04 | 0 | 4th | 01348 |
| 2026-04-04 | 0 | 4th | 01348 |
| 2026-04-04 | 3 | 4th | 01348 |
| 2026-03-25 | 2 | 3rd | 0346689 |
| 2026-03-18 | 1 | 6th | 0012348 |
| 2026-03-14 | 0 | 3rd | 234679 |
| 2026-03-14 | 3 | 3rd | 234679 |
| 2026-03-04 | 1 | 3rd | 2246699 |
| 2026-02-28 | 2 | 4th | 1124678 |
| 2026-02-21 | 0 | 3rd | 034668 |
| 2026-02-21 | 3 | 3rd | 034668 |
| 2026-02-11 | 0 | 2nd | 245699 |
| 2026-02-11 | 2 | 2nd | 245699 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2 | 4th | 0124679 |
| 2026-01-28 | 2 | 3rd | 1345667 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1 | 3rd | 3346789 |
| 2026-01-17 | 0 | 4th | 022457 |
| 2026-01-17 | 3 | 4th | 022457 |
| 2026-01-07 | 1 | 5th | 0222489 |
| 2026-01-03 | 0 | 3rd | 12478 |
| 2026-01-03 | 0 | 3rd | 12478 |
| 2026-01-03 | 1 | 3rd | 12478 |
| 2025-12-31 | 1 | 3rd | 0246788 |
| 2025-12-27 | 2 | 3rd | 0145669 |
| 2025-12-20 | 0 | 3rd | 014899 |
| 2025-12-20 | 1 | 3rd | 014899 |
| 2025-12-17 | 0 | 4th | 012456 |
| 2025-12-17 | 1 | 4th | 012456 |
| 2025-12-13 | 1 | 4th | 0034556 |
| 2025-12-10 | 1 | 3rd | 0046899 |
| 2025-12-06 | 2 | 6th | 0002348 |
| 2025-11-29 | 1 | 4th | 0234889 |
| 2025-11-26 | 1 | 1st | 4567799 |
| 2025-11-22 | 1 | 3rd | 1245669 |
| 2025-11-19 | 0 | 3rd | 034788 |
| 2025-11-19 | 2 | 3rd | 034788 |
| 2025-11-08 | 0 | 5th | 013349 |
| 2025-11-08 | 1 | 5th | 013349 |
| 2025-11-05 | 1 | 3rd | 0345666 |
| 2025-11-01 | 0 | 4th | 011468 |
| 2025-11-01 | 3 | 4th | 011468 |
| 2025-10-22 | 1 | 4th | 0014778 |
| 2025-10-18 | 1 | 2nd | 3456789 |
| 2025-10-15 | 2 | 3rd | 1245689 |
| 2025-10-08 | 2 | 3rd | 0145567 |
| 2025-10-01 | 1 | 6th | 2223347 |
| 2025-09-27 | 2 | 4th | 1234558 |
| 2025-09-20 | 1 | 4th | 0034578 |
| 2025-09-17 | 1 | 4th | 0124689 |
| 2025-09-13 | 0 | 2nd | 14678 |
| 2025-09-13 | 0 | 2nd | 14678 |
| 2025-09-13 | 1 | 2nd | 14678 |
| 2025-09-10 | 3 | 3rd | 1146689 |
| 2025-08-30 | 0 | 2nd | 147999 |
| 2025-08-30 | 2 | 2nd | 147999 |
| 2025-08-23 | 0 | 4th | 013458 |
| 2025-08-23 | 2 | 4th | 013458 |
| 2025-08-16 | 1 | 5th | 0011467 |
| 2025-08-13 | 0 | 3rd | 004568 |
| 2025-08-13 | 1 | 3rd | 004568 |
| 2025-08-09 | 4 | 2nd | 1456699 |
| 2025-07-26 | 0 | 4th | 012469 |
| 2025-07-26 | 7 | 4th | 012469 |
| 2025-07-02 | 0 | 2nd | 145588 |
| 2025-07-02 | 2 | 2nd | 145588 |
| 2025-06-25 | 1 | 5th | 0123479 |
| 2025-06-21 | 2 | 4th | 1334568 |
| 2025-06-14 | 1 | 2nd | 0455667 |
| 2025-06-11 | 1 | 3rd | 0346688 |
| 2025-06-07 | 1 | 3rd | 0046799 |
| 2025-06-04 | 1 | 5th | 0001457 |
| 2025-05-31 | 2 | 6th | 0003346 |
| 2025-05-24 | 0 | 4th | 012466 |
| 2025-05-24 | 1 | 4th | 012466 |
| 2025-05-21 | 5 | 4th | 1234789 |
| 2025-05-03 | 0 | 2nd | 34678 |
| 2025-05-03 | 0 | 2nd | 34678 |
| 2025-05-03 | 1 | 2nd | 34678 |
| 2025-04-30 | 0 | 4th | 123458 |
| 2025-04-30 | 1 | 4th | 123458 |
| 2025-04-26 | 0 | 2nd | 045689 |
| 2025-04-26 | 1 | 2nd | 045689 |
| 2025-04-23 | 1 | 4th | 0024899 |
| 2025-04-19 | 2 | 3rd | 0245899 |
| 2025-04-12 | 3 | 4th | 0004558 |
| 2025-04-02 | 0 | 2nd | 045689 |
| 2025-04-02 | 2 | 2nd | 045689 |
| 2025-03-26 | 2 | 3rd | 0346888 |
| 2025-03-19 | 0 | 3rd | 004578 |
| 2025-03-19 | 4 | 3rd | 004578 |
| 2025-03-05 | 1 | 5th | 1123489 |
| 2025-03-01 | 2 | 3rd | 1345699 |
| 2025-02-22 | 2 | 3rd | 1345667 |
| 2025-02-15 | 2 | 3rd | 0146789 |
| 2025-02-08 | 4 | 4th | 0114556 |
| 2025-01-25 | 2 | 3rd | 1347778 |
| 2025-01-18 | 1 | 4th | 2334589 |
| 2025-01-15 | 2 | 2nd | 2466799 |
| 2025-01-08 | 0 | 2nd | 345568 |
| 2025-01-08 | 3 | 2nd | 345568 |
| 2024-12-28 | 0 | 2nd | 248899 |
| 2024-12-28 | 1 | 2nd | 248899 |
| 2024-12-25 | 0 | 3rd | 234678 |
| 2024-12-25 | 2 | 3rd | 234678 |
| 2024-12-18 | 1 | 1st | 4556999 |
| 2024-12-14 | 2 | 3rd | 1245568 |
| 2024-12-07 | 1 | 3rd | 1145599 |
| 2024-12-04 | 2 | 3rd | 0145889 |
| 2024-11-27 | 1 | 4th | 1234577 |
| 2024-11-23 | 1 | 4th | 2334579 |
| 2024-11-20 | 1 | 3rd | 2245557 |
| 2024-11-16 | 0 | 4th | 123459 |
| 2024-11-16 | 4 | 4th | 123459 |
| 2024-11-02 | 1 | 5th | 0133466 |
| 2024-10-30 | 0 | 3rd | 024558 |
| 2024-10-30 | 1 | 3rd | 024558 |
| 2024-10-26 | 1 | 6th | 0122347 |
| 2024-10-23 | 1 | 5th | 0223499 |
| 2024-10-19 | 2 | 5th | 0123479 |
| 2024-10-12 | 3 | 2nd | 1456799 |
| 2024-10-02 | 2 | 3rd | 3346779 |
| 2024-09-25 | — | 4th | 0134679 |