The Lottery That Chose Lives — LotteryOracle

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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.

The Lottery That Chose Lives

Read the 1969 and 1970 US draft drawings through their actual calendar ranks.

Historical record · 1969-12-01 → 1970 · 366

Date–rank correlation-0.2257Adjusted permutation p: 0.004

Differences between monthly means290,507.1Adjusted permutation p: 0.016

Day of year / Selection rank

Birth month · Selection rank

ObservedExpected

Read the data table

Birth month · Selection rank	Observed	Expected
Jan	201.161	183.5
Feb	202.966	183.5
Mar	225.806	183.5
Apr	203.667	183.5
May	207.968	183.5
Jun	195.733	183.5
Jul	181.548	183.5
Aug	173.452	183.5
Sep	157.3	183.5
Oct	182.452	183.5
Nov	148.733	183.5
Dec	121.548	183.5

Read the data table · Day of year / Selection rank

Day of year	Birth month	Selection rank
1	Jan	305
2	Jan	159
3	Jan	251
4	Jan	215
5	Jan	101
6	Jan	224
7	Jan	306
8	Jan	199
9	Jan	194
10	Jan	325
11	Jan	329
12	Jan	221
13	Jan	318
14	Jan	238
15	Jan	17
16	Jan	121
17	Jan	235
18	Jan	140
19	Jan	58
20	Jan	280
21	Jan	186
22	Jan	337
23	Jan	118
24	Jan	59
25	Jan	52
26	Jan	92
27	Jan	355
28	Jan	77
29	Jan	349
30	Jan	164
31	Jan	211
32	Feb	86
33	Feb	144
34	Feb	297
35	Feb	210
36	Feb	214
37	Feb	347
38	Feb	91
39	Feb	181
40	Feb	338
41	Feb	216
42	Feb	150
43	Feb	68
44	Feb	152
45	Feb	4
46	Feb	89
47	Feb	212
48	Feb	189
49	Feb	292
50	Feb	25
51	Feb	302
52	Feb	363
53	Feb	290
54	Feb	57
55	Feb	236
56	Feb	179
57	Feb	365
58	Feb	205
59	Feb	299
60	Feb	285
61	Mar	108
62	Mar	29
63	Mar	267
64	Mar	275
65	Mar	293
66	Mar	139
67	Mar	122
68	Mar	213
69	Mar	317
70	Mar	323
71	Mar	136
72	Mar	300
73	Mar	259
74	Mar	354
75	Mar	169
76	Mar	166
77	Mar	33
78	Mar	332
79	Mar	200
80	Mar	239
81	Mar	334
82	Mar	265
83	Mar	256
84	Mar	258
85	Mar	343
86	Mar	170
87	Mar	268
88	Mar	223
89	Mar	362
90	Mar	217
91	Mar	30
92	Apr	32
93	Apr	271
94	Apr	83
95	Apr	81
96	Apr	269
97	Apr	253
98	Apr	147
99	Apr	312
100	Apr	219
101	Apr	218
102	Apr	14
103	Apr	346
104	Apr	124
105	Apr	231
106	Apr	273
107	Apr	148
108	Apr	260
109	Apr	90
110	Apr	336
111	Apr	345
112	Apr	62
113	Apr	316
114	Apr	252
115	Apr	2
116	Apr	351
117	Apr	340
118	Apr	74
119	Apr	262
120	Apr	191
121	Apr	208
122	May	330
123	May	298
124	May	40
125	May	276
126	May	364
127	May	155
128	May	35
129	May	321
130	May	197
131	May	65
132	May	37
133	May	133
134	May	295
135	May	178
136	May	130
137	May	55
138	May	112
139	May	278
140	May	75
141	May	183
142	May	250
143	May	326
144	May	319
145	May	31
146	May	361
147	May	357
148	May	296
149	May	308
150	May	226
151	May	103
152	May	313
153	Jun	249
154	Jun	228
155	Jun	301
156	Jun	20
157	Jun	28
158	Jun	110
159	Jun	85
160	Jun	366
161	Jun	335
162	Jun	206
163	Jun	134
164	Jun	272
165	Jun	69
166	Jun	356
167	Jun	180
168	Jun	274
169	Jun	73
170	Jun	341
171	Jun	104
172	Jun	360
173	Jun	60
174	Jun	247
175	Jun	109
176	Jun	358
177	Jun	137
178	Jun	22
179	Jun	64
180	Jun	222
181	Jun	353
182	Jun	209
183	Jul	93
184	Jul	350
185	Jul	115
186	Jul	279
187	Jul	188
188	Jul	327
189	Jul	50
190	Jul	13
191	Jul	277
192	Jul	284
193	Jul	248
194	Jul	15
195	Jul	42
196	Jul	331
197	Jul	322
198	Jul	120
199	Jul	98
200	Jul	190
201	Jul	227
202	Jul	187
203	Jul	27
204	Jul	153
205	Jul	172
206	Jul	23
207	Jul	67
208	Jul	303
209	Jul	289
210	Jul	88
211	Jul	270
212	Jul	287
213	Jul	193
214	Aug	111
215	Aug	45
216	Aug	261
217	Aug	145
218	Aug	54
219	Aug	114
220	Aug	168
221	Aug	48
222	Aug	106
223	Aug	21
224	Aug	324
225	Aug	142
226	Aug	307
227	Aug	198
228	Aug	102
229	Aug	44
230	Aug	154
231	Aug	141
232	Aug	311
233	Aug	344
234	Aug	291
235	Aug	339
236	Aug	116
237	Aug	36
238	Aug	286
239	Aug	245
240	Aug	352
241	Aug	167
242	Aug	61
243	Aug	333
244	Aug	11
245	Sep	225
246	Sep	161
247	Sep	49
248	Sep	232
249	Sep	82
250	Sep	6
251	Sep	8
252	Sep	184
253	Sep	263
254	Sep	71
255	Sep	158
256	Sep	242
257	Sep	175
258	Sep	1
259	Sep	113
260	Sep	207
261	Sep	255
262	Sep	246
263	Sep	177
264	Sep	63
265	Sep	204
266	Sep	160
267	Sep	119
268	Sep	195
269	Sep	149
270	Sep	18
271	Sep	233
272	Sep	257
273	Sep	151
274	Sep	315
275	Oct	359
276	Oct	125
277	Oct	244
278	Oct	202
279	Oct	24
280	Oct	87
281	Oct	234
282	Oct	283
283	Oct	342
284	Oct	220
285	Oct	237
286	Oct	72
287	Oct	138
288	Oct	294
289	Oct	171
290	Oct	254
291	Oct	288
292	Oct	5
293	Oct	241
294	Oct	192
295	Oct	243
296	Oct	117
297	Oct	201
298	Oct	196
299	Oct	176
300	Oct	7
301	Oct	264
302	Oct	94
303	Oct	229
304	Oct	38
305	Oct	79
306	Nov	19
307	Nov	34
308	Nov	348
309	Nov	266
310	Nov	310
311	Nov	76
312	Nov	51
313	Nov	97
314	Nov	80
315	Nov	282
316	Nov	46
317	Nov	66
318	Nov	126
319	Nov	127
320	Nov	131
321	Nov	107
322	Nov	143
323	Nov	146
324	Nov	203
325	Nov	185
326	Nov	156
327	Nov	9
328	Nov	182
329	Nov	230
330	Nov	132
331	Nov	309
332	Nov	47
333	Nov	281
334	Nov	99
335	Nov	174
336	Dec	129
337	Dec	328
338	Dec	157
339	Dec	165
340	Dec	56
341	Dec	10
342	Dec	12
343	Dec	105
344	Dec	43
345	Dec	41
346	Dec	39
347	Dec	314
348	Dec	163
349	Dec	26
350	Dec	320
351	Dec	96
352	Dec	304
353	Dec	128
354	Dec	240
355	Dec	135
356	Dec	70
357	Dec	53
358	Dec	162
359	Dec	95
360	Dec	84
361	Dec	173
362	Dec	78
363	Dec	123
364	Dec	16
365	Dec	3
366	Dec	100

Historical ranks are distributed by JSE from Selective Service records. Calendar dates include February 29 for service year 1970. Each of 999 permutations reassigns the complete rank list, preserving month sizes. Two statistics across two datasets use Bonferroni ×4 and (extreme+1)/(runs+1). No individual month is tested. A teaching reassignment replaces history only in the simulation view.

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The maths, in plain language

padj = min(1, 4 × (extreme+1)/(R+1)); Smonth = Σm nₘ(meanₘ−mean)²

The story behind it

The December 1, 1969 drawing assigned priority for service in 1970. Later birthdays tended to receive lower ranks. Norton Starr’s historical analysis discusses insufficient mixing; a calendar pattern alone does not establish its physical cause. The July 1, 1970 drawing for 1971 provides a comparison after procedural changes. These ranks affected real lives.