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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
LotteryOracle · F-43
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Main drum: 5 of 50. Bonus balls are excluded.
Every machine here is simulated. No real lottery is being accused or predicted.
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 44 | 40 |
| 2 | 43 | 40 |
| 3 | 46 | 40 |
| 4 | 34 | 40 |
| 5 | 35 | 40 |
| 6 | 49 | 40 |
| 7 | 43 | 40 |
| 8 | 34 | 40 |
| 9 | 55 | 40 |
| 10 | 39 | 40 |
| 11 | 56 | 40 |
| 12 | 24 | 40 |
| 13 | 36 | 40 |
| 14 | 38 | 40 |
| 15 | 36 | 40 |
| 16 | 36 | 40 |
| 17 | 35 | 40 |
| 18 | 35 | 40 |
| 19 | 58 | 40 |
| 20 | 58 | 40 |
| 21 | 51 | 40 |
| 22 | 35 | 40 |
| 23 | 36 | 40 |
| 24 | 50 | 40 |
| 25 | 42 | 40 |
| 26 | 38 | 40 |
| 27 | 40 | 40 |
| 28 | 40 | 40 |
| 29 | 34 | 40 |
| 30 | 27 | 40 |
| 31 | 43 | 40 |
| 32 | 32 | 40 |
| 33 | 34 | 40 |
| 34 | 45 | 40 |
| 35 | 30 | 40 |
| 36 | 39 | 40 |
| 37 | 46 | 40 |
| 38 | 38 | 40 |
| 39 | 36 | 40 |
| 40 | 38 | 40 |
| 41 | 45 | 40 |
| 42 | 41 | 40 |
| 43 | 39 | 40 |
| 44 | 28 | 40 |
| 45 | 45 | 40 |
| 46 | 38 | 40 |
| 47 | 40 | 40 |
| 48 | 42 | 40 |
| 49 | 33 | 40 |
| 50 | 41 | 40 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 43 | 40 |
| 2 | 47 | 40 |
| 3 | 62 | 40 |
| 4 | 37 | 40 |
| 5 | 44 | 40 |
| 6 | 46 | 40 |
| 7 | 32 | 40 |
| 8 | 38 | 40 |
| 9 | 46 | 40 |
| 10 | 36 | 40 |
| 11 | 37 | 40 |
| 12 | 37 | 40 |
| 13 | 45 | 40 |
| 14 | 39 | 40 |
| 15 | 45 | 40 |
| 16 | 44 | 40 |
| 17 | 42 | 40 |
| 18 | 27 | 40 |
| 19 | 44 | 40 |
| 20 | 39 | 40 |
| 21 | 31 | 40 |
| 22 | 43 | 40 |
| 23 | 38 | 40 |
| 24 | 38 | 40 |
| 25 | 41 | 40 |
| 26 | 41 | 40 |
| 27 | 40 | 40 |
| 28 | 25 | 40 |
| 29 | 42 | 40 |
| 30 | 42 | 40 |
| 31 | 36 | 40 |
| 32 | 34 | 40 |
| 33 | 39 | 40 |
| 34 | 36 | 40 |
| 35 | 39 | 40 |
| 36 | 50 | 40 |
| 37 | 43 | 40 |
| 38 | 34 | 40 |
| 39 | 47 | 40 |
| 40 | 31 | 40 |
| 41 | 39 | 40 |
| 42 | 33 | 40 |
| 43 | 46 | 40 |
| 44 | 33 | 40 |
| 45 | 35 | 40 |
| 46 | 47 | 40 |
| 47 | 37 | 40 |
| 48 | 38 | 40 |
| 49 | 49 | 40 |
| 50 | 43 | 40 |
| Number | Observed | Expected |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 40 |
| 2 | 16 | 40 |
| 3 | 10 | 40 |
| 4 | 163 | 40 |
| 5 | 10 | 40 |
| 6 | 147 | 40 |
| 7 | 13 | 40 |
| 8 | 12 | 40 |
| 9 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | 12 | 40 |
| 11 | 9 | 40 |
| 12 | 7 | 40 |
| 13 | 15 | 40 |
| 14 | 154 | 40 |
| 15 | 12 | 40 |
| 16 | 164 | 40 |
| 17 | 11 | 40 |
| 18 | 14 | 40 |
| 19 | 22 | 40 |
| 20 | 14 | 40 |
| 21 | 15 | 40 |
| 22 | 11 | 40 |
| 23 | 12 | 40 |
| 24 | 157 | 40 |
| 25 | 11 | 40 |
| 26 | 154 | 40 |
| 27 | 11 | 40 |
| 28 | 5 | 40 |
| 29 | 15 | 40 |
| 30 | 5 | 40 |
| 31 | 9 | 40 |
| 32 | 14 | 40 |
| 33 | 8 | 40 |
| 34 | 150 | 40 |
| 35 | 12 | 40 |
| 36 | 149 | 40 |
| 37 | 12 | 40 |
| 38 | 13 | 40 |
| 39 | 15 | 40 |
| 40 | 10 | 40 |
| 41 | 16 | 40 |
| 42 | 7 | 40 |
| 43 | 9 | 40 |
| 44 | 158 | 40 |
| 45 | 8 | 40 |
| 46 | 148 | 40 |
| 47 | 13 | 40 |
| 48 | 12 | 40 |
| 49 | 8 | 40 |
| 50 | 13 | 40 |
Make a judgment for all three machines before the reveal.
199 independent fair histories; 3 comparisons. · chance-detective-v1 · seed 808419340
One fixed frequency statistic is tested per machine. Independent fair histories use the same sample size and draw format. Add-one Monte Carlo p-values are corrected across all three machines with Bonferroni. The sample is fixed before testing; a non-alert is not a certificate of fairness.
E = Dk/N; Q = Σ(O − E)²/E; p = (1 + #{Qnull ≥ Q})/(R + 1); padj = min(1, 3p)
Three simulated machines. Which would you investigate?
Knowing the generator and detecting it from a short record are different things. A quiet test cannot certify fairness.