Frequency χ²
static weighted balls
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
Calibration Forge
Each method receives fresh fair histories to measure false alarms, then fresh rigged histories matched to the pattern it claims to detect. Calibration and evaluation simulations never overlap.
Show Me Cash5/39 era · since Apr 2010100 draws
static weighted balls
static weighted balls
learnable static bias
persistent marginal bias
abrupt regime change
repeated draw motif
Independent null calibration and power simulationcalibration-bench-v2seed 20260827400 calibration + 400 evaluation histories per cell
Show Me Cash5/39 era · since Apr 2010400 draws
static weighted balls
static weighted balls
learnable static bias
persistent marginal bias
abrupt regime change
repeated draw motif
Every rate here is a proportion out of 400 seeded runs, so it carries a Wilson 95% interval and the interval is what should be read. At fifty runs — the figure this page used to quote — a nominal five per cent false-alarm rate had an interval running from about one per cent to fourteen, and a badly miscalibrated test looked exactly like a perfect one.
Independent null calibration and power simulationcalibration-bench-v2seed 20260827400 calibration + 400 evaluation histories per cell
For each detector and sample size, one bank of fair simulations estimates the 95th-percentile alarm threshold. Separate fair simulations estimate the false-positive rate, while separate rigged simulations estimate power.
A useful detector should keep near 5% and have high for the departure it claims to see. Power is specific: a frequency test need not detect a repeated temporal motif, and a drift test need not detect a constant bias.
A detector that rings often will eventually look prophetic. Calibration asks how often it rings in an empty kitchen; power asks whether it rings when its particular fire is present.
This forge is deliberately synthetic and seeded. It makes no claim about the next draw. Its job is to expose weak instruments before they are pointed at history and given a story.