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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 4,747,983
The crowdHeld 30% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 1/20 · since Jun 2018draw 441 of 1,712 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 16 September 2022 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 40 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 23% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 44 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 440 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (7, 16, 28) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 29 September 2020 — its closest relative in 440 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 88% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (13 September 2022): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 107 — the 25th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 27–28, 28–29. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →28 had not appeared for 14 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 2.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈3.3M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 19,019 winners, 30% more than the 15k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably more popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 94,960 | ZAR 10.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 63,059 | ZAR 15.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 13,196 | ZAR 19.90 |
| Match 3 | 19,019 | ZAR 18.30 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 938 | ZAR 446 |
| Match 4 | 428 | ZAR 864 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 24 | ZAR 9,090 |
| Match 5 | 3 | ZAR 116,132 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | ZAR 4,747,983 |