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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 12,443,950
The crowdHeld 25% more than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/50 + 1/20 · since Jun 2018draw 340 of 1,712 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 28 September 2021 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 40 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 21% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 34 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 339 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 4 of 5 numbers (13, 15, 20, 28) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 October 2020 — its closest relative in 339 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 3.6% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (24 September 2021): nothing carried over. Chance says 42% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: 15 repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 105 — the 23th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 128. Side-by-side numbers: 28–29. 35% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →15 had not appeared for 18 draws. A number waits about 10 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.7× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈3.0M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 16,445 winners, 25% more than the 13k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were a little more popular than average — that is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 85,607 | ZAR 10.00 |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 53,664 | ZAR 15.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 10,908 | ZAR 22.10 |
| Match 3 | 16,445 | ZAR 19.50 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 753 | ZAR 511 |
| Match 4 | 398 | ZAR 855 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 11 | ZAR 47,385 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | ZAR 12,443,950 |