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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 17,786,971
The crowdHeld 29% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018draw 203 of 1,161 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
PowerBall was a 5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 202 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 11 October 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 71 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 96% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 22 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 202 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 39, 43) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 12 August 2011 — its closest relative in 202 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 73% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (7 October 2011): nothing carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 124 — the 62th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →39 had not appeared for 13 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 0.9× as often as an average ticket — about as popular as most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 4% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈5.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 3 — 22,020 winners, 29% fewer than the 31k an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | — |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 96,163 | ZAR 8.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 21,759 | ZAR 14.00 |
| Match 3 | 22,020 | ZAR 20.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,628 | ZAR 297 |
| Match 4 | 568 | ZAR 416 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 31 | ZAR 20,046 |
| Match 5 | 3 | ZAR 295,010 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | ZAR 17,786,971 |