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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
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Reading the draws and working out what chance predicts.
PowerBall · draw
ResultPowerBall
JackpotZAR 8,395,464
The crowdHeld 27% less than an average linefrom the prize table, not from a model of how people pick
Top prizeNot wonnext draw advertised at
Rules5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018draw 197 of 1,161 under them
SourcesSources disagree on this draw — Primary reports different numbers. The reading most sources give is shown. Settled 29 Aug 2026, 09:57 UTC.
PowerBall was a 5/45 + 1/20 · Oct 2009 – Jun 2018 game then. Everything on this page reads the draw against those rules and the 196 draws before it — not against today’s pool.
This draw, read by every tool
What the site’s explorations say about the numbers drawn on 20 September 2011 — each beside what chance predicted. None of it says anything about the next draw.
Scored 73 of 100 across six shape features — more typical than about 98% of every possible ticket.
Times drawn before — chance expected 22 of each
Every number was expected about that many times after 196 draws, and they scatter around it. Warm means more than expected, cool means fewer — and a cold number arriving is exactly what cold numbers do.
Frequency Explorer →Shares 3 of 5 numbers (8, 10, 31) and 0 of 1 stars with the draw of 13 August 2010 — its closest relative in 196 draws. Chance gave a match this close a 72% likelihood somewhere in that history.
From the draw just before (16 September 2011): 38 carried over. Chance says 46% of draws repeat at least one number. Stars: none repeated (5% expected).
Carry-over / Déjà Vu →The numbers add up to 110 — the 42th percentile of all possible tickets, around a middle of 115. No two numbers side by side. 39% of draws have at least one such pair.
Sum Distribution →8 had not appeared for 11 draws. A number waits about 9 on average, and a wait this long was not a signal — the machine has no memory of it.
Gap & “Overdue” Tracker →A line like this is played about 1.3× as often as an average ticket — more popular than most. At 30 million tickets sold, a winner on these numbers would keep about 3% of the jackpot.
Illustrative model, calibrated to published studies — not live sales.
The Unpopular Numbers Edge →Where the money went
The rings take the ≈5.1M lines the counts imply and assume an evenly spread crowd. Furthest from that: Match 4 — 539 winners, 32% fewer than the 788 an even spread gives. The numbers drawn were noticeably less popular than average — a draw full of birthdays makes more small winners, a draw of high numbers fewer. That is the crowd, not the machine.
| Match | Winners | Prize each |
|---|---|---|
| Match 0 plus Bonus Ball | 0 | — |
| Match 1 plus Bonus Ball | 94,712 | ZAR 8.00 |
| Match 2 plus Bonus Ball | 20,836 | ZAR 14.00 |
| Match 3 | 22,554 | ZAR 19.00 |
| Match 3 plus Bonus Ball | 1,554 | ZAR 299 |
| Match 4 | 539 | ZAR 420 |
| Match 4 plus Bonus Ball | 43 | ZAR 13,859 |
| Match 5 | 1 | ZAR 848,736 |
| Match 5 plus Bonus Ball | 1 | ZAR 8,395,464 |